That’s actually a conservative number. According to revenue forecasts prepared by the nonpartisan Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, when excluding the surtax takings, the state will end the fiscal year close to $880 million shy of its own revenue predictions.

Tax revenues for Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 and FY 2025 settle into a post-COVID pattern of lower growth as the economy slows, impacts from migration and an aging population emerge (Appendix A), and tax reforms take effect.