Analysts with the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation believe the hiring spree in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic will slow, as will wage and salary growth, contributing to the sluggish withholding tax revenues.

MTF and several other economic experts on Monday advised officials to reduce their forecast for tax collections this fiscal year by hundreds of millions of dollars, saying they expect the below-benchmark performance to continue.

It’s certainly a vastly different financial landscape to the one Beacon Hill had previously grown accustomed.

That’s actually a conservative number. According to revenue forecasts prepared by the nonpartisan Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, when excluding the surtax takings, the state will end the fiscal year close to $880 million shy of its own revenue predictions.

Tax revenues for Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 and FY 2025 settle into a post-COVID pattern of lower growth as the economy slows, impacts from migration and an aging population emerge (Appendix A), and tax reforms take effect.