Publications: FY 2011

Fiscal 2012 tax revenues will grow by $923 million or 4.7 percent to reach a total of $20.56 billion, according to a new forecast released today by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. The Foundation projects tax collections of $19.63 billion in fiscal 2011, an increase of $554 million over the current consensus forecast, and approximately $1.1 billion or 5.9 percent over tax collections in 2010.

“Despite almost a billion dollars in revenue growth, the state faces a fiscal 2012 shortfall of approximately $2 billion with no federal stimulus dollars and limited state reserves,” Mr. Widmer said. “The 2012 budget will require yet another round of cuts in local aid, human services, higher education, and almost all other state programs.”

In order to try to minimize the enormous consequences of Question 3, the proponents argue incorrectly that total state spending is $52 billion when the correct number is approximately $32 billion, as shown on page 137 of the 2009 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report.

Voter approval of Question 3 would result in across-the-board cuts of approximately 30 percent in virtually all state programs, including local aid, higher education, human services, prisons, courts, environmental protection, and state parks and beaches, according to a report released today by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation.

The report concludes that state leaders would face a $4.5 billion shortfall in the fiscal 2012 budget - an already existing structural deficit of at least $2 billion plus $2.5 billion of reduced tax revenues by cutting the sales tax from 6.25 percent to 3 percent.

The Governor's reliance on more than $2 billion of one-time funds in his $31.7 billion fiscal 2011 budget will require major budget cuts in 2012. According to the Foundation's analysis, even if revenues grow by $1 billion in 2012, the state would still confront a $2.5 billion shortfall with virtually no state and federal reserves to help close the gap. In addition, should the voters this November approve a ballot initiative to reduce the state's sales tax from 6.25 to 3 percent, the state will face a $5 billion structural gap in fiscal 2012, as well as an immediate $1 billion revenue shortfall in fiscal 2011.