"We've seen a huge increase in capital gains taxes," said Widmer. "That makes us more vulnerable to a decline in the stock market, which obviously we've experienced. The only question is how much will it decline." The foundation claims this year's $28.2 billion budget is about $1 billion out of balance, due in part to underestimated spending levels and overestimated revenues tied to tax increases, and Widmer says a $500 million drop in capital gains tax revenues "would not surprise me."